Second Foundation 10. Approaching Crisis

A week had passed on the Second Foundation, and the First Speaker was smiling once again upon the Student.You must have brought me interesting results, or you would non be so filled with anger.The Student put his hand upon the sheaf of calculating paper he had brought with him and said, Are you sure that the problem is a factual one?The premises are true. I have distorted nothing.Then I must accept the results, and I do not lack to.Naturally. tho what have your wants to do with it? Well, tell me what disturbs you so. No, no, put your derivations to one side. I will subject them to analysis afterward. Meanwhile, talk to me. Let me judge your understanding.Well, then, Speaker It becomes real apparent that a gross overall change in the basic psychology of the First Foundation has taken place. As long as they knew of the macrocosm of a Seldon Plan, without knowing any of the details thereof, they were confident but uncertain. They knew they would succeed, but they didnt know when o r how. There was, therefore, a continuous atmosphere of tension and nervous strain which was what Seldon desired. The First Foundation, in other words, could be counted upon to work at maximum potential.A doubtful metaphor, said the First Speaker, but I understand you.But now, Speaker, they know of the existence of a Second Foundation in what amounts to detail, rather merely than as an ancient and vague statement of Seldons. They have an inkling as to its function as the guardian of the Plan. They know that an agency exists which watches their every step and will not let them fall. So they abandon their purposeful stride and lease themselves to be carried upon a litter. Another metaphor, Im afraid.Nevertheless, go on.And that very abandonment of effort that growing inertia that lapse into softness and into a decadent and hedonistic culture, authority the ruin of the Plan. They must be self-propelled.Is that all?No, there is more. The majority reaction is as described. But a grea t probability exists for a minority reaction. experience of our guardianship and our control will rouse among a few, not complacence, but hostility. This follows from Korillovs Theorem-Yes, yes. I know the theorem.Im sorry, Speaker. It is difficult to avoid mathematics. In any case, the effect is that not only is the Foundations effort diluted, but part of it is turned against us, actively against us.And is that all?There remains one other factor of which the probability is moderately low- very good. What is that?While the energies of the First Foundation were directed only to Empire while their only enemies were huge and outmoded hulks that remained from the shambles of the past, they were obviously concerned only with the somatic sciences. With us forming a new, large part of their environment, a change in view may well be imposed on them. They may turn up to become psychologists-That change, said the First Speaker, coolly, has already taken place.The Students lips compressed t hemselves into a pale line. Then all is over. It is the basic incompatibility with the Plan. Speaker, would I have know of this if I had lived outside?The First Speaker spoke seriously, You feel humiliated, my young man, because, thinking you understood so much so well, you suddenly find that galore(postnominal) very apparent things were unknown to you. Thinking you were one of the Lords of the Galaxy you suddenly find that you stand near to destruction. Naturally, you will resent the ivory tower in which you lived the seclusion in which you were educated the theories on which you were reared.I once had that feeling. It is normal. Yet it was necessary that in your formative years you have no direct soupcon with the Galaxy, that you remain here, where all knowledge is filtered to you, and your mind carefully sharpened. We could have shown you this this part-failure of the Plan earlier and spared you the shock now, but you would not have understood the significance properly, as you now will. Then you find no solution at all to the problem?The Student shook his head and said hopelessly, NoneWell, it is not surprising. pick up to me, young man. A course of action exists and has been followed for over a decade. It is not a usual course, but one that we have been forced into against our will. It involves low probabilities, heavy assumptions We have even been forced to deal with individual reactions at times, because that was the only possible way, and you know that Psychostatistics by its very nature has no meaning when apply to less than planetary numbers.Are we succeeding? gasped the Student.Theres no way of telling yet. We have kept the situation stable so far but for the premier time in the history of the Plan, it is possible for the unexpected actions of a single individual to destroy it. We have adjusted a minimum number of outsiders to a needful state of mind we have our agents but their paths are planned. They dare not improvise. That should be obv ious to you. And I will not conceal the surpass if we are discovered, here, on this world, it will not only be the Plan that is destroyed, but ourselves, our physical selves. So you see, our solution is not very good.But the pocket-size you have described does not sound like a solution at all, but like a desperate guess.No. Let us say, an intelligent guess.When is the crisis, Speaker? When will we know whether we have succeeded or not?Well within the year, no doubt.The Student considered that, then nodded his head. He shook detainment with the Speaker. Well, its good to know.He turned on his heel and left.The first Speaker looked out silently as the window gained transparency. Past the giant structures to the quite, crowding stars.A year would pass quickly. Would any of them, any of Seldons heritage, be alive at its end?